2025, Methods Lecture, Raj Chetty and Kosuke Imai, "Uncovering Causal Mechanisms: Mediation Analysis and Surrogate Indices"
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Obviously, who’s going to win the election is something that there are odds made about every single day. You can criticize politics coverage in many ways, but predicting whether or not someone’s up or down or whether some candidate is on the rise such that they might win an election, that’s just a core part of political coverage. And the idea that you should be able to bet on that has gone through long periods of uncertainty.